Europe to install 4,500 MW of PV by 2010

PARIS, France, April 27, 2005 (Refocus Weekly) Europe will have 4,500 MW of solar PV installed by 2010, according to the latest forecast from six renewable energy groups on the continent.

Last year, 410 MWp of panels were installed to boost total capacity to more than 1,000 MW, an increase of 69% over 2003, says the barometer prepared by Observ’ER for the European Union. The EU market was propelled by the 363 MW installed in Germany, which now holds 88% of the continental market and which, for the first time, became the world leader in solar PV, ahead of the 280 MW installed in Japan and the 90 MW installed in the United States.

Of the 363 MW installed in Germany, 360 MW was connected to the grid and 3 MW was off-grid.

Luxembourg was in second place last year, with the installation of 13 MW, all grid-connected, following by Spain with 12 MW and France with 6 MW. Of the 410 MW installed across the continent, 403 was grid connected and 8 MW was off-grid.

On a per-capita scale, Luxembourg leads with 58 watts per inhabitant, with Germany at 10, the Netherlands at 3 and Austria at 2 W per person. All the other countries are less than 1 W, but the average on the continent is 2.2 watts per inhabitant.

One report predicts the world photovoltaic industry will reach annual sales of Euro 30 billion in 2010, based on the current German market of Euro 1.7 billion compared with 650 million in 2003. The number of employees is increasing, with 20,000 in 2004 versus 9,000 in 2003.

Another report estimates the European Commission target of 3,000 MW for 2010 “can be widely exceeded” and that installed capacity of 5,000 MWp by the end of the decade “is entirely possible.” Observ’ER has “significantly re-evaluated” its forecast, based on 20% growth in the German market in 2005 and 2006, followed by stabilization until 2010 and assuming that the PV industry can guarantee its silicon supplies, to predict that Europe will have 4,500 MW installed by 2010.

The prospects in Germany, Spain and Italy remain strong, although the situation in France is “less comfortable” where only a “substantial increase in purchase prices, which is not presently under consideration, would let the French market take off,” it notes. The Netherlands, Austria and Luxembourg have put their PV support systems on hold, with commitments to be made this year.

The ten new members of the EU installed a total of 0.3 MW last year, mainly due to the absence of solar roof programs. Poland installed almost half of that new capacity, although the Czech Republic has the largest PV capacity of the new member countries at 0.4 MW as a result of a national demonstration program in schools that was backed by the European Commission.

Solar cell production remained “very buoyant and sustained” during 2004 due to expanding markets in Germany and the U.S., with total production of 1,194 MW, the equivalent of 400,000 systems with mean capacity of 3 kWp. This output is a growth of 60% over 2003, and average annual growth over the past decade of 36%, although the growth has created problems with silicon supplies.

Japan produced 618 MW of PV cells last year, which is 52% of global output, with European manufacturers producing 308 MW, or 26%. The 139 MW from the U.S. is 12% of the market, while the rest of the world produced 129 MW for 11%.

Sharp produced 324 MW of cells last year to be the top company with 27% of the market, followed by Kyocera with 9%, BP Solar with 7% and Mitsubishi Electric with 6%. Q-Cells (6%), Shell Solar (6%), Sanyo (5%), Isofoton (4%), RWE (4%) and Deutsche Cell (2%) make up the balance of the top ten.

Observ’ER produces regular barometers on the status of renewable energy technologies in Europe, and works with the Eurec Agency, EREC, Jozef Stefan Institute, Eufores and Systèmes Solaires, with financial support from the ADEME and DG Tren (Intelligent Energy-Europe program) of the EU.

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