US projections show strong growth for Solar PV

WASHINGTON, DC, US, 2004-02-04 (Refocus Weekly) Power generation from solar PV in the United States will grow by 28.8% over the next two decades according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

Projections from the U.S. Department of Energy indicate that output from solar PV will rise from 0.08 billion kilowatt-hours this year to 1.02 b-kWh in 2025, while the installed capacity of the technology will rise from 0.04 GW to 0.41 GW. For wind, output will rise from 17.38 b-kWh this year to 53.16 b-kWh in 2025, while capacity will increase from 6.50 GW now to 15.99 GW in 2025.

The projections are contained in the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 from DOE’s Energy Information Administration, and cover the commercial electricity industry and small power producers. The data were prepared for the reference case of the outlook using the National Energy Modelling System.

Output from wood and biomass will rise 6% while installed capacity rises 3.2%. The next largest growth in generation is expected from geothermal, which will increase its output by 5.6% per year by rising from 13.82 b-kWh now to 46.66 b-kWh in 2025, while its installed capacity rises 3.8% from 2.9 to 6.84 GW. Solar thermal output will rise 3.2% per year over the period, from 0.52 to 1.11 b-kWh, while its installed capacity rises 1.9% from 0.33 to 0.52 GW.

The largest component of green power is conventional hydro, which is expected to increase output 0.8% from 269.6 to 304.74 b-kWh, while its capacity increases marginally from 78.43 to 78.68 GW. The low increase in hydropower keeps the total increase in output from all renewables to 1.8% over the period, from 338.95 to 460.57 billion kilowatt-hours, while the sector’s installed capacity increases only 0.8% from 93.66 to 110.13 GW across the country.

Combined heat & power (cogeneration) will contribute 54.36 b-kWh by 2025 from its total installed capacity of 8.29 GW, of which municipal solid waste is only 0.25 GW. Small solar PV systems on homes and commercial facilities will add 2.42 b-kWh of output by 2025, an increase of 15.4% from current generation, while hydro generates another 4.11 b-kWh. The installed capacity for end-use PV will be 1.13 GW by 2025, up 15.4% from the current level of 0.06 GW.


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